Caught something interesting watching the cattle futures this week. Live cattle prices have been moving around pretty decently - front month contracts up 10-20 cents, with the deferred stuff climbing even more. Feeder cattle telling a different story though, down a buck to $1.75 as corn strength keeps putting pressure on that side.

What's got my attention is how weak the export picture looks right now. USDA just reported only 11,163 MT of beef sold for the week ending late February - that's a calendar year low, which is pretty rough. Japan picked up 3,300 MT but that's not enough to offset the overall softness. Meanwhile shipments were at 14,914 MT that week, so there's a disconnect between what's moving and what's selling.

On the cash side, Fed Cattle Exchange auction showed no sales on 1,224 head with bids sitting at $238, which tells you something about where buyers are at on cattle price right now. The CME Feeder Cattle Index dropped another 34 cents to $368.59. Boxed beef prices ticked higher in Thursday's report though - Choice boxes down $1.68 to $386.89, Select up $0.26 to $380.61, so there's some mixed signals coming through.

Slaughter numbers came in at 111,000 head Thursday with the week-to-date at 433,000 - that's above last week but still running behind last year's pace by about 34,700 head. The cattle price action suggests traders are still working through this export weakness and trying to figure out where the real bottom is on feeder cattle. Keep an eye on how Japan and South Korea demand plays out - that's going to matter for where prices go from here.