Just noticed treasuries made a notably strong push higher on Tuesday after that softer-than-expected retail sales print. The 10-year yield dropped 5.1 basis points to 4.147%, hitting its lowest close in nearly a month. Prices were solid all day, which honestly makes sense given what the Commerce Department dropped.

December retail sales came in basically flat, which caught a lot of people off guard. Everyone was expecting a 0.4% bump, but we got nothing. Even stripping out auto sales, still flat. Kathy Bostjancic from Nationwide summed it up pretty well - consumers just hit pause after going hard in October and November. She's looking for Q1 to bounce back though, with tax refunds potentially $50 billion higher than last year helping things along.

On the labor side, import prices ticked up as expected in December. The real thing to watch now is Wednesday's jobs report - that one got delayed because of the shutdown last week. Market's pricing in around 70,000 new jobs for January after 50,000 in December. Feels like we're getting a clearer picture of where consumer spending is heading into the new year.