Just been checking the coffee market and there's some interesting dynamics playing out between arabica and robusta right now. Arabica's up slightly today but robusta just hit a 4-week low - pretty different moves for the two.

The main story is Brazil getting way more rain than usual. Minas Gerais, where most of the arabica comes from, got 117% of average rainfall last week. Good news for crop yields, bad news for prices. Plus Brazil's total production forecast just got bumped up to 56.54 million bags for 2025, which is putting pressure on the market.

Meanwhile, Vietnam's flooding the market with robusta. Their exports jumped 17.5% year-over-year and production is projected to hit a 4-year high. That's weighing heavily on robusta prices specifically. The contrast between arabica and robusta supply situations is pretty stark right now.

Inventories recovered a bit too - arabica stocks bounced to 461,829 bags in mid-January after hitting lows in November, and robusta inventory is also climbing. More supply across both types isn't helping prices. The USDA's expecting global production to hit a record 178.8 million bags next season, though arabica production is actually supposed to dip 4.7% while robusta surges 10.9%.

So if you're watching arabica vs robusta, the supply stories are pretty different. Robusta's got way more pressure from Vietnam's output, while arabica's dealing with improved Brazilian yields. Worth keeping an eye on how these diverge.