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Just been watching the currency markets and wow, the dollar's been on a tear lately. Jumped over 1% to hit 3-month highs after oil spiked to 8.5-month peaks, which basically killed any hopes of more Fed rate cuts happening soon. Money markets are now pricing in only 37 basis points of cuts for the year instead of the 60 they were looking at last week. That's a huge shift and it's keeping the dollar bid.
The euro's getting hammered in this environment, down 1.3% today to its own 3-month low. Doesn't help that European natural gas just exploded 24% to 3-year highs, which is going to mess with eurozone growth. Though I'll say the inflation data they just released was stronger than expected, so at least the ECB's got some cover to stay hawkish on rates.
Gold and silver though? Getting crushed. Gold in dollar terms is down over 5% today, silver's down 9%. Makes sense when you've got the dollar rallying this hard and bond yields climbing everywhere. Investors are apparently liquidating precious metals positions to cover losses in stocks. That said, there's still some underlying support from central banks - China's been quietly adding to gold reserves for 15 straight months now, which is interesting. And with all the geopolitical noise in the Middle East and Ukraine, some safe-haven demand is still there. It's just not enough to fight the dollar strength at the moment.