Just been watching soybeans take another hit on the back of all this geopolitical noise. Prices dropped 5 to 8 cents in front months on Monday, though new crop stuff held up a bit better. The cash market was down 2 cents to around $10.91, and soy meal got hammered with a $2.30 drop. Oil futures actually caught a bid though - up 70 to 92 points - riding on crude's strength after the Iran situation over the weekend.

What's interesting is the export data that came out. Weekly shipments jumped 66.9% compared to the prior week, with China taking the bulk of it. But here's the thing - we're still running way behind on the marketing year total, down about 30% versus last year at this point. That's a pretty significant shortfall.

The crushing numbers from January came in above expectations too, and soybean oil stocks are looking pretty healthy at 2.43 billion lbs. Meanwhile, Brazil's harvest is only at 39% done, which is lagging their typical pace. Both AgRural and StoneX have been cutting their Brazil crop estimates - down to around 177-178 MMT. Add in the China uncertainty ahead of their meetings this month, and you've got a market that's caught between supportive fundamentals and a lot of headline risk. Soybeans are definitely something to keep an eye on with all this volatility.