Super Week is coming: Central bank interest rate decisions, major corporate earnings reports, and geopolitical developments set the tone for Q2 economic trends

Gold Zhu, Jinsescaijing

Summary

The financial markets are迎来 a super week, with five major central banks集中议息, key economic data releases, and tech giants announcing earnings. These economic data will directly影响 global economy and asset pricing in the second quarter.

After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concludes this week, several large tech companies will逐步发布 their earnings reports. The market generally认为 that the so-called “super week” has arrived, and the data trends this week可能决定 the direction of global stock markets.

1. The Big Five Central Banks集中议息

1. Bank of Japan (April 28): No change in interest rates

The Bank of Japan’s third consecutive meeting kept the target interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, in line with market expectations.

Japan’s real economic growth forecast was lowered. For fiscal year 2026, it is 0.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from previous estimates; for fiscal year 2027, it is 0.7%, down 0.1 percentage points. Considering rising oil prices and物流停滞 pushing up prices, while also exerting downward pressure on the economy, the decision was made to hold off on rate hikes.

BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo stated: “There is no immediate need to raise interest rates. If current supply shocks generate secondary ripple effects, then rate hikes will be necessary.”

Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, said that support for rate hikes from three votes was somewhat unexpected, and policy member Shunko Nakagawa also shifted to support hikes. In Japan, the impact of Middle East shocks has already begun to show in consumer confidence, which is concerning in itself, and this impact is expected to further transmit to prices. Meanwhile, the yen still faces depreciation pressures in financial markets. Overall, the BOJ has no choice but to maintain its rate hike bias. If the Middle East situation eases, it is expected that the bank will further raise rates around June to July.

2. Federal Reserve FOMC (April 29): Expect no change in interest rates

The Fed will hold its rate decision meeting on April 28-29, with markets widely expecting a third consecutive hold at 3.50% to 3.75%. CME FedWatch data indicates that the market has fully priced in the no-change expectation for this month.

According to CME “Federal Reserve Watch” data, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in April is 100%. The chance of a 25 basis point cut by June is 4.5%, with a 95.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

Barclays analysts stated in a report that, amid high inflation, the Fed is expected to keep the federal funds target rate range unchanged at this week’s meeting, but there is still potential for rate cuts later this year. The analysts said: “In an environment of high uncertainty, the Fed tends to stay on hold, supported by strong demand and still-high inflation, and policymakers have also signaled reduced confidence in further rate cuts in the near term.” They added that if inflation falls as expected, the Fed is likely to gain enough confidence to start easing policy around September. “We still expect rate cuts this year.” According to LSEG data, the currency market is currently pricing in a 10 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2026.

3. Bank of Canada (April 29): Expect no change in interest rates

TD Securities expects the Bank of Canada to keep the overnight rate at 2.25% in April, likely remaining there for the rest of 2026. They believe the Bank will adopt a more balanced but cautious tone, emphasizing dual upside and downside risks from rising oil prices and USMCA renegotiations, while ignoring short-term inflation spikes.

TD strategist Andrew Kelvin noted: “We expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 2.25%, with the policy statement once again reflecting a cautious tone. Rising energy prices will lead the Bank to significantly raise inflation expectations in the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), while revisions to core inflation and GDP are more moderate. Importantly, we expect the Bank to point out the ‘dual’ growth risks from oil prices and maintain its commitment to overlook short-term inflation impacts.”

“We still expect the Bank of Canada to remain on hold through the rest of 2026, especially given the recent unexpected decline in CPI. The recent rise in rates, particularly the increase in the Bank of Canada’s forward rates, should be viewed as transmission of expectations for Fed rate cuts rather than a change in outlook. The December rate is currently priced at 2.61%, and returning to pre-war levels may be a slow process rather than a rapid adjustment driven by a single dovish data point or communication.”

4. Bank of England (April 30): Expect no change in interest rates

Market surveys suggest that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee members are likely to vote 8-1 to keep the current 3.75% benchmark rate unchanged. Previously, in March, the vote was unanimous 9-0 to keep rates steady. Given the high geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East, most believe that maintaining the status quo this week is a prudent approach.

However, investors expect a rate hike later this year. The market has largely priced in a 25 basis point increase in July, with a small chance of another hike in September, and even a third hike before year-end. Yet, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has warned that such hikes may be premature.

5. European Central Bank (April 30): Expect no change in interest rates

Rainer Guntermann, a rate strategist at Deutsche Bank, stated in a report ahead of the ECB policy meeting this week that the ECB will continue to closely monitor high oil prices. Since the US has paused negotiations with Iran and the Strait situation remains tense, short-term oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly. “This will keep the ECB on alert, but it’s still too early to hike rates this week.”

2. Key Economic Data

1. US

April 28: Release of April Consumer Confidence Index by the Conference Board; April 30: Release of March Durable Goods Orders (initial), Fed’s April rate decision, Q1 GDP annualized rate, and March Leading Economic Index.

2. China

April 30: Release of China’s April official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI.

3. Europe

April 29: Release of March M3 money supply YoY; April 30: Release of Q1 GDP seasonally adjusted QoQ, April CPI YoY, March unemployment rate, and April ECB interest rate decision.

4. Japan

April 28: Release of March unemployment rate; April 30: Release of March machine tool orders (final YoY), BOJ interest rate decision, March retail sales YoY, and March industrial output initial.

3. Tech Giants Earnings

According to Huannan Yongchang Securities, five of the “Seven Giants of US Stocks”—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple—will release earnings this week. The current market narrative centers on whether massive AI-related capital expenditures have translated into corresponding revenue growth. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta’s 2026 capital expenditure guidance shows significant growth compared to last year, and the market will closely watch their AI monetization progress. Despite the S&P 500 reaching new highs recently and 84% of companies reporting better-than-expected profits, market breadth has deteriorated, with most common stocks performing weakly.

Domestically, leading companies like BYD, Foxconn, Cambrian, Sinopec, and China Merchants Bank will also report their Q1 results successively.

4. Geopolitics

Iran and US delegations may hold a second round of talks in the coming days. Iran has conveyed to the US that it hopes Trump will tone down threatening rhetoric, and indicated that if the US adopts a more conciliatory stance, hardliners in Iran are more likely to support negotiations.

Iran will hold a nationwide parade at 3 p.m. on April 29 to showcase national strength.

Summary

In summary, this super week has clarified the short-term main theme of global financial markets: high interest rate environment will continue to dominate asset pricing.

Tech earnings and geopolitical risks will be the core drivers of subsequent market volatility, and investors should focus on signals such as central bank policy directions, AI sector profitability, geopolitical risks, and oil price fluctuations.