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Just noticed soybeans are popping higher today, with meal really leading the move. Cash beans sitting around $10.81, up about 6.5 cents at midday. Soymeal futures are looking solid in that $7.60 to $8.10 range across the front months, though soy oil is getting pushed down 7 to 12 points.
The Argentina weather story seems to be playing into this strength. Their growing season is wrapping up and forecasts are looking a bit drier than expected, which is definitely supporting meal prices right now. That's the kind of supply concern that gets traders' attention.
Looking ahead, we've got the USDA export sales report dropping Thursday for the week ending February 19. Market's expecting somewhere between 0.4 to 1 million metric tons of soybean sales, with soybean meal pegged at 250k to 500k MT. Pretty standard expectations, but you know how these reports can shift sentiment.
What's interesting is the crop insurance angle. Only 3 days left for spring base price discovery, and November soybeans have been averaging $11.05 this month - that's up 51 cents from last year. The March contract is popping along at $11.46, May at $11.62, and July hitting $11.74. Solid momentum across the board if these levels hold.