Just saw Sunrun's stock got absolutely hammered today - down 35% after they reported their quarter. The weird part is that revenue and earnings actually came in strong, so why the selloff?

Digging into it, the real issue is everything else. Their net subscriber value tanked 30%, and they're guiding for negative growth in 2026. So even though they're making more money per customer, they're adding fewer customers and the overall value of their subscription base is shrinking. That's a bad combo.

The problem is pretty clear though - the solar tax credit is phasing out at the end of 2025, so Sunrun has to completely shift their business model. They're scaling back their lower-margin partner sales and focusing on direct subscriptions where they can keep the commercial tax credits. But that means smaller scale and less growth, which is killing investor confidence.

On top of that, inflation is crushing them. Higher costs for materials and capital, plus the fact that their subscription values are calculated using discount rates tied to interest rates. When rates stay elevated, the present value of those future cash flows gets hit. They're also dealing with tariff pressures that just keep getting worse.

Management is projecting around $5 billion in aggregate subscriber value for 2026, down from $5.6 billion last year. Same story with cash generation - they expect $350 million versus $377 million in 2025. It's not a collapse, but it's clearly a contraction year.

The company still has scale and can probably maintain positive cash flow even at these lower levels, but there's just too much uncertainty right now with regulatory changes, tariffs, and interest rates to say we're at a bottom. Might be worth watching, but I'd wait for more clarity before jumping in.