Caught the sugar selloff today - NY May futures down 1.51% and London ICE white sugar dropping 1.29%. The move makes sense when you look at what's coming down the pipeline: pretty much everyone's expecting a global sugar surplus to dominate the market over the next couple years, even with shipping costs spiking from the Middle East tensions.

The surplus story is getting clearer by the week. Czarnikow's calling for 3.4 MMT surplus in 2026/27, while the ISO just lowered their 2025/26 forecast to 1.22 MMT (down from 1.63 MMT). Production's climbing across the board - India's already at 24.75 MMT through late February, up 12% year-over-year, and the government just greenlit another 500,000 MT for export. That's on top of the 1.5 MMT they already approved. India's basically flooding the market now that they've got the supply.

India's production story is the real price pressure here. Their output's expected to hit 29.3 MMT for 2025/26, up 12% y/y, and they're cutting ethanol usage to free up more for exports. Combined with Thailand ramping up to 10.5 MMT and Brazil's Center-South output holding steady around 40+ MMT, we're looking at a pretty oversupplied market. The Indian sugar export push alone is enough to keep a lid on prices for a while.