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Caught the soybean rally heading into the weekend and it was pretty solid. Old crop contracts jumped 16 3/4 to 21 1/2 cents on Friday alone, with May beans up 30 cents for the whole week. Cash prices climbed to $11.27 3/4, up over 21 cents. Soymeal and soy oil both got a lift too, with oil futures really popping 473 points on the week (7.65% move). What's driving this? Crude oil's been the main story—jumped $10.22 just on Friday as risk premium keeps flowing into energy. That's pulling the whole complex higher.
On the export side, commitments are sitting at 36 MMT, which is about 84% of what USDA estimated, but that's trailing the normal 92% pace. Shipments are lagging even more at 61% of target. Managed money added some positions this week too, bringing their net long in soybean futures to nearly 199k contracts. Specs are also building exposure in soy oil, hitting the biggest positioning since late 2022. Definitely worth watching these weekend quotes as we head into next week—crude's moves will keep dictating the tone here.