Bitcoin Drawdown Hits 39% but Still Above Bear Market Lows: Analysis

Bitcoin sits 39% below its ATH with spot buyers active and perp shorts piling up. Analysts say conditions differ from past cycle lows.

Bitcoin continues to trade well below its all-time high. The current pullback stands near 39%, roughly 205 days after the peak. Analysts at CryptoQuant flagged this in a recent post.

Spot buyers remain active, yet derivatives traders are moving in the opposite direction. The divergence is drawing close attention across the crypto market.

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Bitcoin Drawdown Compared to Past Cycle Lows

CryptoQuant’s data puts the current decline in sharp historical context.

Past bear markets saw far steeper losses before a bottom formed. The 2015 cycle low came after an 86% drop from peak levels. The 2018 and 2022 cycles bottomed at roughly 83% and 76% declines, respectively.

Bitcoin drawdown not yet at capitulation levels, Source| CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto_glass noted a gradual shift in market structure over the years. More recent bear markets have generally produced shallower losses than earlier cycles.

Even so, the current 39% drawdown remains far short of prior capitulation levels. As Crypto_glass put it, current conditions still differ materially from past cyclical lows.

Spot Buyers and Perp Shorts Pull in Opposite Directions

Market analyst IT_Tech_PL shared detailed order flow data after Bitcoin swept the $74,900 level and bounced to $78,000.

Spot cumulative volume delta rose by over $134 million, pointing to net buying throughout the move. Perpetual futures CVD, on the other hand, dropped by more than $385 million. Perp traders sold into every bounce during the same period.

Perps faded the entire rally from 74.9K to 78K. Spot bought every dip. This ends badly for one side.

CVD:
– Spot: +134.56M – rising, net buying off the 74.9K low
– Perp: -385.09M – deep negative, selling into every bounce

Funding Rate: +0.0005% – longs paying shorts, mild… pic.twitter.com/yIYv0jPO1q

— IT Tech (@IT_Tech_PL) April 30, 2026

The funding rate sat at a mild +0.0005%, with longs paying shorts. IT_Tech_PL noted that spot delta and perp delta both showed bid-side dominance. However, the persistent selling pressure in perps told a different story.

According to IT_Tech_PL, when spot CVD climbs while perp CVD falls, that sets up a potential squeeze, not distribution.

Traders Watch Key Levels as BTC Holds Above $74,800

Analyst Lennaert Snyder shared his outlook after Bitcoin printed a new low following the FOMC event. He identified a large 4-hour imbalance near the $76,963 area from the most recent move down.

Snyder noted he held a swing short and was watching for a retest of that imbalance before adding. His short target pointed toward taking out the $74,814 level.

$BTC printed a new low after FOMC.

Looking at price, Bitcoin left a huge 4H imbalance in the last impulse down.

I’m only in a swing-short right now, but I’m willing to add if we get a better fill of the 4H ~$76,963 imbalance and price gives a bearish trigger.

For longs, the… pic.twitter.com/pem2vADnZh

— Lennaert Snyder (@LennaertSnyder) April 30, 2026

Snyder also pointed out that the previous daily low near $74,936 was holding at the time of his post.

The previous daily high stood at roughly $77,906, marking the near-term trading range.

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin was priced at $76,090 at the time of reporting. That reflected a 1.82% decline over 24 hours and a 1.73% drop over the past seven days.