Just caught cocoa futures getting hammered today - NY's down over 4% and London's off nearly 6.5%, hitting 2.5-year lows. The selling pressure is pretty intense right now.

What's driving this? Buyers are basically refusing to pay asking prices for cocoa beans from West Africa. Ghana already slashed farmer payouts by 30% for next season, and word is Ivory Coast is about to follow suit. Both countries supply more than half the world's cocoa, so when they're cutting prices, the market takes notice.

The supply side is looking bloated too. Forecasters are calling for a 287,000 MT surplus in 2025/26, and warehouse inventories just hit a 4-month high. Meanwhile, demand is pretty weak - chocolate makers are seeing volume drop as consumers push back on high prices. Barry Callebaut reported a 22% sales decline in their cocoa division, and European grinding numbers came in significantly below expectations.

There's some offsetting factors though. Nigerian cocoa production is expected to fall 11% next year, which could tighten things up. Plus, Ivory Coast shipments to ports are running 3% below last year's pace. But honestly, with favorable growing conditions in West Africa boosting pod counts and all this supply pressure, cocoa buyers just aren't feeling the urgency to step in at current levels. The sentiment has definitely shifted.