Caught the soybean rally continuing this week - front month quotes are up nearly 20 cents, with cash beans now trading around $11.24. Soymeal and soy oil are both moving higher too, riding on crude oil strength that's pushing everything up together. Pretty solid momentum here.

The export data tells an interesting story though. We're only at 84% of the USDA's soybean export forecast, which is lagging the normal pace. Shipments are even slower at 61% of target. Meanwhile, Brazil just bumped up their crop estimate to 183.1 million tonnes and they've already shipped over 7 million tonnes in February alone - that's more than triple what they moved in January. Argentina's crop conditions improved slightly to 30% good/excellent, but nothing dramatic.

So the quotes on these good friday moves seem to be reflecting tight near-term supplies meeting decent demand, but with global production looking pretty robust overall. Could be one of those setups where the rally runs into some resistance once people digest all the supply coming online.