Just caught up on the nat-gas moves from earlier this week. That inventory report hit different than expected - we saw a -132 bcf draw when the market was looking for -124 bcf. Bigger withdrawal means tighter supplies, which obviously helped prices spike. Interesting because you'd normally see demand soften heading into warmer weather, but that Iran situation with the Ras Laffan plant getting hit definitely changed the equation. That facility does like 20% of global LNG, so when it goes offline, it ripples everywhere.

The production side is getting wild too. Lower-48 output sitting at 113.1 bcf/day and they just raised the 2026 forecast again. We're basically at record production levels now with active rigs hitting a 2.5-year high. That's the kind of supply growth that usually caps upside on prices, but geopolitical stuff keeps overriding it. Electricity demand also jumped +7.84% year-over-year last week, so there's some bullish support from that angle.

What's keeping me watching the ng inventory today situation is how tight things actually are. Inventories are up 7.2% year-over-year but still 2.2% below the 5-year average. Europe's storage only at 30% full versus their normal 45% for this time of year. So we've got production ramping, demand normalizing for spring, but supplies still lean. That's the tension playing out right now.