Just noticed natural gas made a solid move today, breaking through its first target at 2.07 after completing that rising ABCD pattern. The high hit 2.09, so we're right in the zone. Price action is interesting right now though - hit some resistance off the top and pulled back to the day's lows. Looks like it might be testing that lower support channel soon. If the April 14 swing low at 1.95 gets hit, that's your proxy for the dashed line. Otherwise, keep an eye on the purple triangle support around 1.91 - that's the real level to watch.

What's got me interested is that Monday closed at the highest level in almost two months, which honestly feels like natural gas is signaling higher prices ahead. If the bulls keep pushing, the next target is sitting pretty at 2.20, with a zone between 2.17 and 2.24. The 38.2% Fib is right there at 2.24. The 200-day moving average sits around 2.48 if we keep climbing. The momentum looks decent too - that 8-day MA just crossed above the 50-day, and the RSI broke its trendline to the upside.

But here's the thing: if natural gas closes below 1.91 today or in coming sessions, all bets are off. We'd probably see a test of lower levels, somewhere between 1.90 and 1.61. The April 23 high of 1.85 and the moving averages around 1.78-1.80 would be the next support zones. So the target is clear, but the path matters. Stay above 1.91 and we're probably heading higher. Break it and we could see a bigger pullback.