Goldman Sachs says Persian Gulf crude oil supply will take "months" to recover

Goldman Sachs stated that assuming the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens and no new attacks occur, the disruption to Persian Gulf crude oil production caused by the Iran war will take “several months” to fully recover.
Analysts including Daan Struyven wrote in a report on April 23 that April’s oil output is estimated to have decreased by about 14.5 million barrels per day, a decline of 57%.
Among these figures, Saudi Arabia’s supply is expected to decrease by 4 million barrels per day; Iraq by 3 million barrels per day; Iran by 2.5 million barrels per day; the UAE by 2.7 million barrels per day; Kuwait by 1.2 million barrels per day; Qatar by 1 million barrels per day.
They stated: “The longer the actual blockade of the strait lasts, the longer the production cuts will continue, and the slower the recovery of production may be.”
This outlook reflects factors such as oil wells potentially requiring more maintenance, procurement delays for pipelines and other materials, and transportation restrictions.
Nevertheless, achieving a “steady recovery” depends on limited physical damage to oil fields, Saudi Aramco’s forecast that it can relatively quickly increase production, and the possibility that Saudi Arabia and the UAE may activate idle capacity.
During the capacity ramp-up phase, transportation and well flow rates will be key constraints, depending on pipeline capacity, the availability of materials and labor, and the complexity of the reservoirs.
If the strait remains closed for a long time, the final stage of recovery “will take significantly longer, and may even be impossible to fully achieve.” (Cailian Press)