Just noticed coffee prices are climbing today - both arabica and robusta closed higher this week, with robusta hitting a 1.5-month peak. The dollar weakness definitely helped spark some short covering across commodities, including coffee.

What's interesting is the supply picture is pretty mixed right now. Brazil's exports dropped significantly in December (down 18% total), and they've been getting less rain than normal in their main growing regions, which usually supports prices. But Vietnam's pumping out record robusta volumes - their 2025 exports jumped 17.5% year-over-year. Plus inventory levels have been climbing back up after hitting those lows earlier.

The USDA is projecting world coffee production will hit record levels this season, up 2% to around 178 million bags. That kind of supply overhang could cap any rally, even if we're seeing some tightness in certain areas. Worth keeping an eye on how Brazil's weather develops and whether Vietnam keeps flooding the market - those two countries basically control global coffee prices today.