The main reason this inflation surge is happening is that the Middle East conflict has disrupted oil trade, causing gasoline prices to skyrocket and directly push inflation higher.

This means inflation is no longer a “temporary fluctuation,” but is directly tied to geopolitical events. As long as the Middle East situation remains unstable and oil prices keep rising, inflation won’t come down.
With high interest rate expectations fully priced in, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are strengthening, making investors more willing to park in dollars to earn interest—so the appeal of non-yield assets like BTC has directly declined. In the short term, it will most likely trade sideways and weakly; if it spikes up, it’s likely to fall back.
The mid-term logic is also effectively locked in: as long as oil prices don’t drop and inflation doesn’t cool off, the Federal Reserve won’t turn to easing, and the crypto market will find it hard to break out into a major run—so it can only grind through repeated range-bound action.
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