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The small-scale downward trend is intact
$BTC #比特币现货交易量新低
From the one-hour chart, it is in a downward trend. The perfect scenario is completing three waves; currently, two waves have been completed, and after the third wave, a breakthrough of the trend line would lead to an upward move. If it bypasses the third wave and directly breaks the secondary high of 78,265, then the downward structure is broken. Looking at the trend, it doesn't seem like an upward breakout is imminent.
From the 15-minute chart, the first wave of decline retraced to the Fibonacci 0.5 level. If an extension downward occurs, the target should be around 73,800. The good point of 76,473 made this morning on the 15-minute chart has selling pressure, and the recent breakout was quickly crushed down.
Overall, the probability of completing three waves and reaching around 73,800 is very high.