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I've been watching the nuclear energy race pretty closely lately, and there's an interesting dynamic playing out between two companies trying to reshape how we think about reactors. NuScale Power and Oklo are both betting big on smaller, more modular designs -- but they're taking pretty different approaches, and the market's treating them very differently right now.
NuScale builds small modular reactors that are genuinely compact -- we're talking 65 feet tall and 9 feet wide, designed to be prefabricated and assembled on site. It's the only SMR player with Standard Design Approvals from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The company's 77 MWe design got approved and is now being used for Romania's RoPower project. On top of that, they recently locked in a deal with the Tennessee Valley Authority to potentially deploy up to six gigawatts across seven states. That's serious infrastructure backing.
Oklo's playing a different game with microreactors -- think even smaller. Their Aurora unit generates just 1.5 MWe on its own, but you can chain them together to hit 15 to 100 MWe depending on what you need. They use metallic uranium fuel that's denser and cheaper than traditional uranium dioxide, and here's the kicker -- their reactors can run about a decade on a single fuel load instead of needing refueling every two years like conventional plants. They just broke ground on their first Powerhouse reactor in Idaho, and they've got a government contract for Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska.
But here's where it gets real: neither company is actually generating revenue from deployed reactors yet. NuScale won't see its first plants online until the early 2030s, though it'll be pulling in money from engineering studies and licensing deals in the meantime. Analysts are projecting their revenue could jump from $31 million this year to $287 million by 2028. Oklo's timeline is slightly ahead -- they're targeting late 2027 for their first deployment in Idaho, which could bring in $16 million that year.
The valuation story is where things get really interesting. Oklo's trading at over 600 times its projected 2027 sales with a market cap around $9.7 billion. NuScale, despite its near-term catalysts looking more concrete, is valued at roughly $3.9 billion -- about 19 times projected 2027 sales. That's still expensive, but way more reasonable than what Oklo's commanding.
What's wild is how the market has punished NuScale while giving Oklo a pass. NuScale's stock has dropped nearly 80% since last year, while Oklo's down only 20%. Some of that's probably because investors are fixating on near-term catalysts, and Oklo's got that 2027 deployment date to anchor on. NuScale's big inflection points are still years away, so it's getting overlooked in this volatile environment.
The thing is, both could end up being winners in the nuclear energy sector long-term. They're not really competing directly -- NuScale's building bigger modular plants while Oklo's focused on remote, off-grid applications. But if you're looking at which one the market will favor in the near term, the momentum's clearly with Oklo right now, even if NuScale's fundamentals around its engineering pipeline and government partnerships look pretty solid.