Just caught that May NY cocoa bounced +45 points Wednesday after getting hammered earlier in the week. Dollar weakness helped spark some covering, but what's really interesting is the supply situation. Higher shipping costs from the Middle East tensions are pushing up import expenses, which should support prices. But here's the thing—global cocoa pods for sale are actually piling up. ICCO just raised their 2024/25 surplus forecast to 75,000 MT, first surplus in four years. Ivory Coast and Ghana both cutting farmer payouts hard (57% cut in Ivory Coast), which means supplies aren't tightening anytime soon. Demand's also been weak—Barry Callebaut reported a -22% drop in cocoa division volume last quarter. European grindings fell -8.3% y/y, worst Q4 in 12 years. ICE inventories hit a 6.5-month high at 2.2M bags. The bounce looks like short covering, but the fundamentals still point lower with all this surplus hanging over the market and chocolate makers cutting back orders. Watching to see if this holds or if we test new lows again.