On April 30th, Iranian Parliament member Manouchehr Mottaki publicly stated that a maritime blockade means declaring war, and our fighters might decide tomorrow or next week to clear these obstacles through military action.

Iran's current approach is not a temporary tactical response, but an effort to turn the state of war into a permanent Strait rule. Supreme Leader Khamenei has already explicitly ordered that the Strait of Hormuz must not return to pre-war conditions. The Iranian president also announced that without the Supreme Leader's orders and the will of the people, Iran will not allow even a single barrel of oil to flow out of the Strait.

The Iranian parliament has drafted 11 proposals regarding control of the Strait, including restricting passage of hostile ships, banning ships related to Israel from passing, and attempting to further legalize these arrangements.

On the U.S. side, three aircraft carriers are deployed in the Persian Gulf: the Lincoln, Ford, and Bush, with over 200 aircraft and 15k troops assembled in the Middle East. This is the largest naval deployment by the U.S. military in the Middle East since 2003.

However, after more than forty days of fighting, U.S. forces have suffered tremendous losses, consuming 45% of their precision strike missile stockpiles and over 50% of their THAAD and Patriot interceptors. Restoring pre-war levels could take years.

Iran is also well aware of the cards held by the U.S., betting that the U.S. fears a prolonged stalemate even more than itself. Currently, this high-stakes gamble might be a phase-based judgment that is correct.

Oil prices have been driven to new heights by this confrontation. Brent crude oil has risen for eight consecutive days, reaching nearly $122.15 per barrel on Wednesday, a new high since 2022. The Strait, which normally sees 125 to 140 ships passing daily before the conflict, has recently seen only single digits transit, with oil exports essentially halted. Iran’s parliamentary speaker directly mocked on social media: three days have passed, and no oil wells have exploded. We can extend this to thirty days and inform the world via live broadcast.

Meanwhile, Trump faces a hard deadline on May 1st. According to the War Powers Resolution of 1973, any military action without congressional approval lasting more than 60 days must be withdrawn or seek authorization. Although the White House currently denies it is a war, the oil price implications and pressure from Capitol Hill are very real.

With the Strait blocked on one side and oil prices soaring on the other, neither side can easily relinquish their chips. The so-called “blockade equals declaration of war” ultimately means Iran has thrown the hottest energy ultimatum to the world. Who will hold out first? The answer is being written in the daily oil prices. $BTC #美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧