Been watching the Trump rate-cut pressure play out, and it's getting interesting from a market history perspective. Everyone knows he wants the Fed to slash rates, but here's what's actually happening versus what the data tells us about similar situations.

Right now the Fed is sitting at 3.5-3.75% on the federal funds rate. That's actually higher than what Canada, China, the EU, Japan, and South Korea are running. Trump's been pretty vocal about wanting rates at 1% or even lower, but there's this little problem called inflation still running hot. December showed CPI at 2.4% and PCE at 2.9%, both above the Fed's 2% target.

Here's where the US interest rates history gets interesting. Since 1990, the Fed has cut rates 58 times. What happened after those cuts? The S&P 500 returned a median of about 10% over the following year. But if you strip out the recession-era cuts, that number jumps to 11%. We're not in a recession right now, so theoretically, if cuts happen, you're looking at roughly 50-50 odds of seeing that 11% return.

The thing is, the market's currently pricing in less than 5% odds of a March cut according to CME data. Most traders aren't expecting anything until June at the earliest, and even that's iffy. The inflation situation keeps getting in the way.

So we've got this standoff where Trump's pushing hard for lower rates, but the Fed's basically saying not yet. Looking at the broader US interest rates history, whenever the Fed has cut outside of recessions, equities have generally performed well. The logic checks out too—cheaper borrowing costs mean more spending, more growth, better corporate earnings. But that only works if inflation cooperates, and right now it's not.

My take? The stock market's probably going to stay rangy until we get clearer inflation data that actually gives the Fed cover to move. Trump gets his pressure in, but monetary policy isn't really a political tool, even if everyone acts like it is. Watch the economic data more than the headlines.