Evening Thoughts | ETH Market Analysis

Although ETH has broken free from the bearish flag pattern, it has not effectively突破 the key resistance at 2280.
Only with a volume-supported stabilization above 2280 can the market return to the 2308–2342 resistance zone, at which point the current downward trend will be declared over and stabilized, paving the way for a new upward movement.

Conversely, if the market retraces downward and breaks below the 2233 support, then the previous low at 2218 is likely to be broken as well; this level only provides a short-term buffer and is unlikely to form a strong support.
Once the 2218 previous low is effectively broken, the strongest support on the hourly level will shift down to 2173, and subsequent focus should be on observing price signals indicating a halt in decline around 2173, waiting for stabilization before considering long positions.
In the short term, if upward momentum is weak and downward movement does not break support, the market will remain within the narrow range of 2280–2233, waiting for a breakout to determine the next direction.

Short-term trading strategies:
If ETH breaks through 2264 with volume, go long on the right side;
If volume drops below 2232 with a rebound that fails to recover, go short on the right side;
Closely monitor volume and momentum, strictly control stop-loss to manage risk.

If the hourly level successfully stabilizes above 2264, the upward target is in the 2303–2335 range.
Once the four-hour level breaks below the 2231 support, the downward trend will target the 2173–2126 correction zone.

On the four-hour timeframe, the triangle convergence pattern has already broken down. After the breakdown, two attempts to rebound back into the convergence zone failed.
Currently, the lower boundary of the convergence pattern has become a strong resistance level on the four-hour chart. If the price can re-enter the pattern, the four-hour trend can stabilize and recover; if sustained resistance prevents this, based on Fibonacci structure, the current correction has reached its 1:1 target.
Next, pay close attention to the Fibonacci 1:1 key support level:
If it can hold steady, the overall market structure remains intact; if it breaks, the next target is the 1.618 extension level.