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Just caught up on that soybean rally from last week and the moves were pretty solid. Beans were up 20 cents across most contracts, with new crop hitting up to 11 cents higher. The cash market pushed through to $10.47, which is interesting because it's already above where last year's spring insurance pricing landed at this point in the season.
What caught my attention was the Trump angle - pushing China to commit to 20 MMT instead of the previous 12 MMT for soybeans. That's a meaningful uptick in demand expectations and definitely fueled the strength we saw carry over from Wednesday. The USDA export data that morning showed 436,949 MT sold for the week, down from the prior week but still up year-over-year. China took the bulk at 233,000 MT, with Egypt and Mexico picking up another 185,000 MT combined.
Brazil's export numbers from January also caught traders' attention - 1.88 MMT moved, which was way up from last year even though it dipped from December. That kind of supply flow usually supports the district's pricing dynamics. Soymeal futures were up $5-7, though soy oil stayed relatively flat. If this momentum up 20 holds through the next couple weeks, we might see some real conviction building in the spring contracts.