Evening Market Outlook

Bitcoin hourly chart continues to consolidate within the triangle range, forming a potential W bottom pattern, but the pattern is not fully confirmed yet.
The key neckline for the W bottom focuses on 76,478; only with a volume-supported breakout above this level will the hourly W bottom be officially formed, and the market will start a rebound upward.
Next, watch the upper triangle resistance and the first resistance at 77,278.
If the price successfully breaks through 77,278, it will further target the yellow arrow target area, 78,434, and previous high regions.
The position marked by the red arrow below also indicates a potential double bottom pattern.
Before breaking the neckline at 76,478, all bottom formations are just predictions; only with a volume-supported stabilization above the neckline can the double bottom be officially confirmed.
Until the pattern develops, all forecasts are speculative.
Operationally: aggressive traders can consider going long at the current price, betting on the W bottom pattern to trigger a rebound;
More conservative traders should patiently wait for a breakout above the neckline to pursue long opportunities on the right side.
Short-term support focuses on the lower boundary of the triangle and the previous low near 74,919;
as long as the price retraces without breaking below this level, the downside risk will not significantly increase.
If the previous low is effectively broken, there is an 80% chance the price will drop to 73,670, and the overall trend will weaken and turn bearish.
Key short-term attack and defense levels:
• Volume breakout above 76,327, follow through on the long side;
• Volume breakdown below 75,324, if the rebound fails to recover, then pursue short positions on the right side, with strict stop-loss risk management.
If the hourly chart successfully holds above 76,327, the upward target range is 77,278–77,900;
if the price fails to rally and pulls back from 76,337 resistance, the bulls will lack momentum for further extension.
Four-hour trend defense:
Once the support at 75,570 is broken, the downside target range is 74,685–73,751.