Just saw the latest EIA data and natural gas inventory just came in larger than expected. Week ending Feb 27 showed a 132 bcf draw, beating the 124 bcf consensus. That's pretty bullish on the surface, but here's what caught my attention today: the market barely moved up because forecasters are calling for warmer temps across the eastern US through mid-March. Heating demand could take a hit if those predictions pan out.

What's interesting about natural gas price action right now is how much geopolitical noise is still baked in. That Iranian drone attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan facility last week knocked offline about 20% of global LNG supply. Even though we're seeing some carryover support, the warmer weather forecast is basically capping any rally.

Looking at the time and current supply picture, US dry gas production hit 113.1 bcf/day yesterday, up 5.6% year-over-year. EIA just raised their 2026 forecast to nearly 110 bcf/day. More production coming online is bearish pressure long term. Gas rigs are at a 2.5-year high with 134 active units. The inventory situation looks stable—we're only 2.2% below the 5-year average—so no supply crisis brewing. Temperature swings and geopolitical events are the real drivers today, not fundamentals.