Markets had a pretty solid day on Monday with the S&P 500 up 0.21%, Dow up 0.25%, and Nasdaq 100 climbing 0.46%. The real story here though was the bond news – yields dropped significantly as traders started pricing in Fed rate cuts. The 10-year Treasury hit a 5-month low around 4.04%, which is a pretty meaningful move. Everyone's basically assuming a 25 basis point cut is locked in for next week's FOMC meeting, with just a small chance of something bigger.

What's interesting is how this bond news is reshaping rate expectations more broadly. The market's now pricing in about 81% odds of another 25 bp cut in October, up from 54% just a few days earlier. By year-end, we're looking at roughly 76 basis points of cuts total, which would bring rates down to 3.62%. That's a pretty dramatic shift from where we were. The weak China trade data definitely helped fuel this – their exports and imports both came in softer than expected, adding to growth concerns.

On the stock side, chip makers absolutely led the charge. Broadcom popped over 3% and extended last Friday's massive 9% rally after announcing that OpenAI partnership. Marvell, Lam Research, and Nvidia all moved higher too. AppLovin had a wild day jumping 11% after getting added to the S&P 500. Then you had some real outliers – Forward Industries surged 54% on news of a Solana-focused treasury strategy, and Rapport Therapeutics exploded 122% on positive drug trial results.

Not everything was green though. CVS led the losers in the S&P 500, dropping 3% after management gave investors basically nothing at a private meeting. Telecom stocks got hammered across the board – T-Mobile and Verizon both down more than 2-3% – after SpaceX's $17 billion deal to buy spectrum from EchoStar. Some bond news-driven weakness showed up in specific sectors too, with the higher-for-longer rate narrative impacting different parts of the market differently.

This week's going to be crucial for the bond news cycle. We're getting CPI and PPI reports that'll determine how much room the Fed actually has to cut. Treasury's also auctioning $119 billion in notes and bonds, which could add some supply pressure. The tariff situation remains a wild card too – that Federal Circuit ruling on Trump's tariff authority could eventually head to the Supreme Court, which adds another layer of uncertainty to the outlook.