Recently, I came across a bunch of charts, linking stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and OTC funds into a single "funds coming in = about to rise" line, which just made my head spin. Correlation can be so deceiving; honestly, more stablecoins might just mean people are parking their money on-chain waiting for opportunities, or switching between channels to find a more convenient way. The same goes for ETFs—sometimes it's just traditional funds reallocating, not necessarily immediately translating into the few candlesticks on your chart.

On the other hand, L2s are constantly arguing about TPS, fees, and subsidies. My first thought now is: can it be used? Can the money flow smoothly across and back? Don’t let the data look great only for the bridge to get clogged or withdrawals to slow down, because then OTC funds will just be circling at the door.

What I’ve learned isn’t techniques, but rather: when you see two lines moving together, hold back and don’t rush to assign causality.