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So Netflix just walked away from the Warner Bros. Discovery deal and somehow the stock is up huge. Actually, scratch that — Netflix walked away and everyone's making money. That's the wild part.
For context, Netflix was bidding around $72 billion (or $83 billion with debt assumed) to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery. Paramount Skydance came in with a higher offer, Netflix decided the price got too steep, and they backed out. Both companies' stocks went up on Friday. You almost never see that happen.
Here's what's interesting: in just four trading days last week, Netflix gained about $85 billion in market value. That's more than the entire deal they were trying to make. The stock jumped 27% over those four days alone. The market basically said "actually, we like you better as an independent company."
I've been holding Netflix since it was a broken IPO back in 2002, so I've seen plenty of moves. But this one feels different. The market had actually punished Netflix during the bidding process — at one point the stock was down over $100 billion in market cap from when they first entered the race. Investors were skeptical about whether combining Netflix with Warner Bros. Discovery made sense.
Turns out they were right to be skeptical. Netflix generates $45 billion in annual revenue with 325 million paying subscribers worldwide. That's an incredible position. Adding HBO's content library would've been nice, but at what cost? There were regulatory concerns, political pressure starting to build, and honestly Netflix was already doing fine on its own.
Plus, Netflix is collecting $2.8 billion from Warner Bros. Discovery just for walking away from the deal. That's the cherry on top.
What's really rewarding here is that the market is recognizing discipline. Netflix could've overpaid like Paramount Skydance apparently did. Instead they walked away when the math didn't work. Revenue growth accelerated for the third straight year, subscriber stickiness is improving, and they can still bid on live sports deals without attracting unwanted scrutiny.
The 27% surge isn't a consolation prize — it's validation that sometimes you win more by knowing when to walk away. Netflix didn't need this deal to succeed. They were already winning.