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Just caught something worth paying attention to. Warren Buffett's latest move is basically screaming that something doesn't add up in today's market.
So here's what happened - Berkshire Hathaway just reported that they've been net sellers of stock for 13 straight quarters now. That's roughly three years of dumping equities, totaling $187 billion in net sales. And this isn't some random thing. Back in 2018, Buffett said it was hard to imagine months when they weren't buying. Now? The complete opposite.
The thing is, Berkshire has over $300 billion sitting in cash. They could be deploying that aggressively if they wanted to. But they're not. Instead, Warren Buffett and his team keep selling more than they buy quarter after quarter. That tells you something about how they're viewing current valuations.
Here's where it gets interesting from a market perspective. The S&P 500 hit a CAPE ratio of 39.8 back in February. For context, that's basically the highest we've seen since the dot-com crash in 2000. And history here is pretty clear - whenever this ratio exceeds 39, the data shows the market has typically declined around 30% over the following three years.
Obviously, past performance doesn't guarantee anything. The argument could be made that AI earnings growth might justify higher valuations going forward. But the pattern is hard to ignore. When you combine Buffett's cautious stance with these valuation signals, it's worth thinking about portfolio positioning.
The practical takeaway? If you're holding stocks, make sure they're companies you'd actually be comfortable owning through a significant drawdown. And if you're looking to buy, focus on things with reasonable valuations and real earnings growth potential over the next five years. The market's been running hard, but Warren Buffett's actions suggest the easy money might be behind us.