So coffee futures closed mixed on Friday - arabica barely budged while robusta got hit. Dollar weakness helped pull back some of the selling pressure we've been seeing, but honestly the real story is still the supply side crushing prices.

Brazil's about to flood the market with coffee. Their crop agency just confirmed 2026 production jumping 17% to hit a record 66 million bags, and arabica specifically is up 23%. Add decent rainfall to that and it's looking like a massive harvest coming. Meanwhile Vietnam's exports are surging - January alone was up 38% year-over-year. When the world's biggest robusta producer is shipping that much volume, it puts serious weight on US coffee prices across the board.

The inventory story is interesting though. ICE arabica stocks bottomed out at 396k bags back in November but have recovered to 461k, and robusta inventories came back from their December low too. That's bearish for prices in the short term, but there's a wrinkle - Colombia's production got hammered, down 34% in January. That's keeping some support under arabica at least.

Overall the US coffee prices market is caught between massive supply coming online and some tighter spots in specific origins. Not much bullish fuel here unless something changes with demand or weather.