I’ve discovered a flaw in myself: whenever I see those “coincidental transfers” on the chain (A just transferred, B immediately follows, amounts are similar), I get itchy and want to jump to conclusions right away. Basically, it’s about seeking a sense of certainty; the market is too noisy, and catching a “conspiracy” makes me feel like I have a bit more control.

But after reviewing, many of these can be broken down into normal paths: the same router/aggregator making bulk withdrawals, cross-chain bridge collection addresses changing positions, exchange hot wallets doing internal transfers, or even someone just using a fixed slippage with a copy-trading bot… It looks like a script, but it’s really just processes layered together.

Recently, hardware wallets are out of stock, phishing links are everywhere, everyone’s security awareness has improved, but it also makes us more nervous. Now, when I see “coincidences,” I don’t get excited first; I try to clarify the path: who is the entry point, which contracts are involved, and what type of address it finally lands on. If it can be explained, don’t force an explanation; if it can’t, forgive yourself and don’t overthink.