The Federal Reserve has finished this rate-setting meeting; forget about interest rate cuts, at least for the short term, the door isn't open yet.

In the early hours of April 30th, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5% to 3.75% range, marking the third consecutive pause this year.

Will there be rate cuts this year? Judging by various institutional opinions, it's very uncertain, but not completely dead yet. The March "dot plot" from the Fed shows that officials expect only one 25 basis point rate cut in 2026, likely around September to October. But the problem is, that dot plot was created before the Middle East situation worsened significantly. Now oil prices have risen, the Iran situation has made the Strait of Hormuz unstable, and WTI crude oil has surged to $106.88 per barrel. Plus, the lagging effects of previous tariff policies are still being felt, and U.S. inflation remains more sticky than expected, with core PCE expected to stay around 3.2%, drifting further from the Fed’s 2% target.

What are the necessary conditions for a rate cut? Powell clearly stated at the press conference that they need to see energy prices fall and tariff pressures ease before considering a cut. Currently, none of these conditions are met.

So, if you’re waiting for a rate cut? Be patient and wait a bit longer. Until oil prices drop and core inflation turns around, these two signals are not clear, rate cuts might just remain a hopeful wish written into the dot plot.

Finally, if the Fed doesn’t restart rate cuts, don’t expect a big upward rally. The words "bull market"—whoever mentions them, they’re overused and worn out. $BTC #美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧