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Volatility Characteristics: Under geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations are significantly amplified, exhibiting both safe-haven attributes and dual characteristics of risk assets.
Trend Logic: During the initial escalation of conflict, there is a sharp decline driven by panic sentiment, followed by funds treating it as "digital gold" for allocation, leading to a rapid rebound and recovery; overall, its correlation with gold strengthens, while also being influenced by expectations of dollar liquidity.
Key Judgment: In the short term, it is heavily impacted by news sentiment, but in the medium to long term, it remains anchored to Federal Reserve monetary policy; geopolitical conflicts are only short-term catalysts for volatility.