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So you keep hearing people throw around bull market and bear market, but honestly, most people using these terms don't really explain what they mean. I get it—the terminology is everywhere but nobody breaks it down. Let me share what I've picked up about this over the years.
First, the bull market. When we're in a bull market, stock prices are trending upward and things feel good. The SEC officially defines it as a 20% or more rise in a broad market index over at least two months. But really, it's when a large chunk of stocks are moving up consistently over time. What's interesting is this doesn't have to apply to the entire market—you could have tech in a bull market while utilities are struggling. That's actually pretty common.
The cool part about a bull market is the psychology behind it. There's this thing called the wealth effect where people feel richer when their homes and stock portfolios go up, so they spend more money. That spending actually fuels more economic growth, which keeps the bull market going. It's this self-reinforcing cycle of optimism.
Now flip that completely and you get a bear market. A bear market is basically the opposite—a 20% or more drop in stock prices, and it brings economic pessimism with it. People get scared and pull money out, which drives prices down even more. It's brutal. During the Great Recession, we saw drops over 50%. The Great Depression was even worse at 83%. When you're in a bear market, investors are in protection mode, not growth mode.
Historically, the bulls have won out. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced 26 bear markets and 27 bull markets. But here's the key difference—bull markets last way longer. Average bull market runs about three years, while bear markets typically last around 10 months. That's a huge advantage for the bulls.
2020 was wild because we got both in rapid succession. The market crashed over 30% in just days—fastest 30% drop ever. Then somehow it reversed completely and hit all-time highs within 33 trading days. That was the shortest bear market in history. Normally that kind of swing is unheard of. It was a classic black swan event when COVID hit.
Here's what matters for your portfolio: if you're truly long-term, the bull market vs bear market cycle shouldn't stress you out too much. The historical trend is up. The problem is when people panic sell during bear markets or pile in at the peak of a bull market. That's when real damage happens. The best move is staying consistent with your strategy, not chasing emotions. But if you need that money in the next few years, keep it safe—stocks are a long-term game.