Been looking at the energy sector lately and there's something interesting happening with the major players and their upstream assets.

ExxonMobil's position is pretty solid. They've got serious footprint in the Permian - using lightweight proppant tech that's boosting well recoveries by up to 20% - plus significant operations in offshore Guyana. The production numbers are hitting records from both regions. What caught my attention is the breakeven costs are low enough that they can keep pumping even when crude prices dip. They're projecting upstream volumes to hit 5.5 million oil equivalent barrels daily by 2030, with the Permian, Guyana and LNG handling 65% of that.

Fang and Conoco aren't sleeping either. Fang is basically a pure Permian play with over 10 years of drilling inventory locked in. Conoco's Delaware and Midland basin assets are feeding solid production numbers too. Both have pretty strong upstream outlooks.

Now here's where it gets interesting from an investment angle. XOM stock jumped 38.3% over the past year versus 29.6% for the broader energy index. But valuations are getting stretched - trading at 9.72X EV/EBITDA compared to the sector average of 5.94X. The consensus on 2026 earnings has actually been getting marked down recently, which is worth noting.

Right now Zacks has XOM rated as a Hold. The upstream fundamentals look solid, but you're definitely paying a premium for that exposure. Depends on your thesis for crude prices and how much you want to chase the energy rally at current valuations.