The matter of interest rate cuts may not be as "determined by the economy" as it seems

After reading a report from China International Capital Corporation, the core view is quite clear: based on models and fundamentals, the United States still has room for at least two rate cuts, and overall, they are more optimistic than market expectations.
There are mainly two points in the logic:
First, if oil prices do not stay above $100 for a long time, inflation is likely to naturally decline due to the "base effect," which would open space for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
Second, the key variables in the market are not only economic data but also external factors, such as energy prices and geopolitical situations.
But the problem lies here — reality is never just a single economic curve.
The report mentions several key constraints:
Iranian tensions keeping oil prices high
Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve on the policy pace
And uncertainties related to Powell, making decision-making more cautious
More subtly, the market is also observing the influence of "political variables," such as the level of policy coordination.
My understanding is that this round of macro trading is no longer a simple linear logic of "inflation falling = rate cuts," but has become a multi-variable game: energy, politics, and policy pace are all interacting.
To simplify it a bit, it boils down to one sentence:
Rate cuts are not absent, but become more dependent on whether "external conditions are aligned."
In this environment, many people tend to focus on predicting right or wrong, but what truly matters is the sense of rhythm.
The market will never follow the model completely; it only follows whether "reality can be coordinated."
Sometimes, what determines the trend is not the data itself, but when these variables are willing to make concessions together. #WCTC交易王PK #美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 #Polymarket每日热点 #比特币现货交易量新低 #油价突破110美元 $SWARMS