Dragon Daily | April 30, 2026

(1) Old Powell bows out, Fed internal divisions
Last night at 2 a.m., the FOMC kept rates unchanged, but disagreements were significant
Out of 12 votes, 8 supported holding rates steady, 4 opposed, marking the largest split since 1992
1 vote believed rates should be cut directly, 3 votes thought now was not the time to continue easing signals
One side thinks rate cuts are too slow
The other side thinks easing is too early
Powell's view is that rates are already near neutral, but before cutting, we need to see energy conflicts and tariff impacts subside
Additionally, after Powell steps down as Chair on May 15, he will remain on the Federal Reserve Board until 2028, so Old Powell isn't fully out, just in a different role accompanying us
(2) US-Iran tensions escalate, oil prices surge
Oil prices have surged again
Iran issued a tough warning: if the US continues sanctions, they will take unprecedented military action
Trump also issued a tough warning: no deal without giving up nuclear weapons
From over $60 before the conflict to nearly $120 now, crude oil has nearly doubled in two months
Oil prices not falling, inflation can't come down
Inflation can't come down, rate cut expectations can't rise
Rate cut expectations can't rise, risk assets find it hard to rally
(3) Conclusion
Three things are weighing on the market now:
Fed divisions, oil price surge, shrinking trading volume
The market is likely to oscillate back and forth, not suitable for heavy positions
Next, focus on two signals:
Whether oil prices have reached a turning point, and how Wosh’s policies will change after taking office
Before that, do less, watch more, and don't rush
A May scheme is brewing—stay tuned!