The Federal Reserve enters a period of "dual uncertainty of power and interest rates," and the market's true test has just begun

Recently, information surrounding the Federal Reserve has actually sent a quite key signal: not only is the interest rate path unclear, but there is also an uncommon uncertainty about the "handover of power."
A recent interpretation from Nick Timiraos mentions that current Chair Jerome Powell explicitly stated at the press conference that he will not step down immediately and will continue to serve as a board member after the chair transition.
This approach breaks the tradition of "chairman stepping down completely" after a transition, which has been the norm for the past few decades, and is already quite unusual in itself.
More importantly, at the policy level. Several Fed officials' attitudes are already very clear: they are not inclined to cut interest rates in the short term.
Members including Harker, Kashkari, Logan, and others emphasize that inflation remains sticky—rising energy prices, core inflation approaching 3%, and tariff effects still transmitting—making a shift to easing very difficult.
In other words, the current Federal Reserve is not "ready to loosen," but rather "still on the defensive."
Meanwhile, market expectations for the next chair, Kevin Warsh, have also become more complex: on one side, the White House hopes to see rate cuts, while on the other, a more hawkish consensus is forming within the FOMC.
My personal feeling is that the biggest mistake markets are most prone to at this stage is betting on the direction too early.
Because when "political expectations" and "economic data" start to tug at each other, the actual path often proceeds more slowly and more complicated than the market imagines.
Many times, uncertainty itself is the greatest variable.
The market won't change its rhythm because of expectations; it will only follow reality step by step. #WCTC交易王PK #美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 #Polymarket每日热点 $BSB $SWARMS