The prediction market track is starting to differentiate: Hyperliquid and Polymarket are heading down two different paths

Arthur Hayes recently brought up an interesting viewpoint, and he believes that prediction markets are entering a “platform differentiation period.”
First, let’s look at Hyperliquid’s approach:
They plan to launch HIP-4 prediction markets. It’s not just about competing on low fees—more importantly, the HYPE token itself enables users to directly share in the platform’s growth revenue. In other words, users are not only traders; they’re also participants in the platform’s growth.
On the other side is Polymarket:
Market expectations are that its future token (commonly referred to as POLY) may launch. Pre-market valuation has already been pushed to about $14 billion, fully diluted valuation, while HYPE’s corresponding platform valuation is around $38 billion—both sides have already shown clear stratification.
Going deeper, the routes for the two actually differ:
Polymarket and Kalshi—more “compliance-focused prediction markets”—will face regulatory constraints in regions such as the United States.
Hyperliquid is more of a “crypto-native market,” targeting users in Asia and on-chain users, with more flexible rules.
My understanding is that this is no longer just product competition, but a split of two different systems:
One is more like an extension of traditional finance, and the other is more like an evolution of an on-chain native economy.
In the short term, it’s track competition; in the long term, it may mean a reshuffling and re-layering of user structures. #WCTC交易王PK #美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 #Polymarket每日热点 $BSB $SWARMS