$BTC ‌

Let's talk about a topic we haven't discussed in a long time today.
Where are we now? Where are we most likely headed?
(1)
Actually, a few months ago, I already had a rough idea of the bottom target for this bear market cycle,
but plans are always overtaken by changes.
Although the past two months near 60,000 was indeed my expected bear bottom range,
some of the structures in between still led to misjudgments.
For example, the 97,900-60,000 range, I initially thought was a Y-a (a decline that was too smooth),
but after a rebound from 65,000 all the way up, I ultimately classified this range as the second X of WXYXZ.
According to this definition, the next step is to test the bear market bottom again and build a base, which is the Z wave.
(2)
In the past two days, above the X, there’s been talk of a structure
retesting around 74,000 and then reaching a new high above 80,000.
But I haven't seen any clear, convincing evidence.
I’ve thought about it myself—unless it develops into a daily chart guiding diagonal wave structure,
which is shown in the diagram.
If it follows this structure, what’s happening now is the fourth wave retracement of the daily guiding diagonal wave.
Currently, it’s the C part of the ABC of the fourth wave. Based on the most common A=C, it’s indeed around 74,000.
Summary: Actually, both structures have probabilities.
I can't say for sure which one will play out, but the most important thing is—
how you view the bullish and bearish scenarios and how to defend yourself well.
That is the core of trading.