Just caught the crude oil rally from last month - WTI was up solid on the back of a weaker dollar and some serious geopolitical noise. The US-Iran tensions really spiked things higher after that drone incident, and then Trump signaling potential nuclear talks actually kept a lid on further gains. Interesting dynamic there.

What's holding crude prices up right now is the supply story. Ukraine's been hitting Russian refineries and tankers pretty hard, which is cutting into Russian export capacity. OPEC+ is playing it cautious too - they paused production increases through Q1 and still have over a million barrels per day left to restore from their 2024 cuts. Meanwhile, Venezuelan crude is ramping up, which is adding supply pressure.

On the inventory side, US crude stocks were running below the 5-year average, which is supportive. The EIA data showed production dipped slightly to 13.7 million bpd last month, down a bit from November's record. Active oil rigs are still pretty low around 410 - down from the highs we saw back in 2022. So overall, crude seems caught between geopolitical support and growing supply concerns. Worth watching how the Iran talks actually play out.