Just checked the coffee futures and it's a mixed bag today. March arabica coffee is up slightly, but robusta got hit harder and dropped to a 4-week low. The reason? Brazil's been getting way more rain than usual in Minas Gerais - we're talking 117% of the historical average last week. Good news for yields, bad news for arabica coffee price stability.

The supply picture is actually pretty bearish right now. Brazil just bumped up their 2025 production forecast to 56.54 million bags, and Vietnam keeps pumping out robusta like crazy - up 17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam's even projecting another 6% production jump for 2025/26. With that much coffee coming online, it's hard to see prices catching a real bid.

Inventories have been recovering too, which isn't helping the arabica coffee price situation. ICE arabica stocks bounced back to 461,829 bags in mid-January after hitting lows, and robusta inventories are also climbing. The only thing potentially supportive is that Brazil's December exports actually fell 18.4%, but honestly that's not enough to offset all the supply growth happening globally. The USDA is projecting world production will hit a record 178.8 million bags next season, so unless something changes with weather or demand, I'd expect coffee prices to stay under pressure.