Lately, I've been analyzing on-chain data, and the supply of stablecoins is indeed increasing. The group has started to automatically speculate, "ETF inflow = price rally." To be honest, I'm a bit worried about this kind of linear thinking... The increase in supply could be due to off-chain inflows, or it could just be exchanges and market makers reallocating positions, or even for hedging purposes, so the direction isn't so straightforward.

I usually look at the order book together: sometimes on-chain looks like fish beneath the ice, swimming slowly but genuinely; but the other side of the order book seems more like the surface blown up by emotions. Recently, rumors about regulation, reserve audits, and de-pegging have been repeatedly circulated, making everyone more nervous. I’m not even sure which piece of news is most critical, so I wouldn’t take correlation as causation for now. My approach is to keep my positions smaller and patiently observe where the funds are flowing over the next few days.