Gold Price Trend Projection and Trading Reflection

1. Wave Structure and Key Projections

Current judgment: after gold has completed the main down wave 3, it is in a rebound within wave 4. The core view is that after the rebound, there is a high probability of another decline in wave 5 (the terminal wave). Based on wave theory measurements, the potential target zone for this terminal wave is around 4415 - 4380.

2. Yesterday’s Trading and Current Observation

• Reflection: Yesterday, at 4560, I attempted a short-term long (looking toward 4635), but due to the fact that the 4557 support was actually relatively weak, I exited with a small loss of 10 US dollars. This once again reminds us that in a downtrend continuation environment, chasing rebounds must be extremely cautious.

• Current situation: The 1-hour chart shows a bottom divergence, indicating a need for a short-term rebound. The strength of the rebound is the key for what comes next:

◦ Weak rebound: target around 4620.

◦ Strong rebound: may test the 4645 - 4660 area.

3. Next Steps and Risk Control

• Holding short positions: Before the price effectively breaks above 4660, maintain a bearish outlook. Existing short positions can continue to be held, waiting for the realization of the wave 5 terminal wave.

• Key turning point: Only when the price strongly breaks above 4660 can it mean that the current correction is not a wave 5 decline, but a reversal after an ABC sideways consolidation—in which case the trend needs to be re-evaluated.

• Long-term positioning: After this round of decline has fully ended (e.g., reaching the 4380-4415 area), as long as the daily candle body does not break the 4250 key support, the plan remains to position medium-term long positions, looking toward a new round of upward movement.
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