With May Day approaching, let’s talk about today’s thinking!

At 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve meeting has fully concluded. On the surface it appears unchanged, but in reality the entire process was relentlessly hawkish and bearish toward crypto. Combined with the current weak market structure, this round is clearly a “follow the trend” short setup—no guessing at rebounds, only trading in line with the trend.

1. BTC’s attempt to push through the 80,000 level completely failed. After the meeting, it quickly broke below the 75,600 key moving-average support, plunging to around 74,900 at the lowest.
2. The daily top distribution pattern has been established. A downward middle structure on the 4-hour timeframe has taken shape. Rebounds lack strength, declines come with expanding volume, and every bullish rebound is just a trap.
3. Long positions at high levels continue to get liquidated. Layer upon layer of sell pressure stacks up; rebound attempts can’t break through resistance, and the downside room is fully opened.
4. Overall, it’s a “good news already cashed out and dumped” situation, with bad news continuing to ferment—there are no conditions for a one-way bullish reversal.

This time, the Federal Reserve isn’t a dovish surprise coming true—it’s hawkish expectations getting reinforced again. High interest rates for the long term suppress global liquidity. BTC’s prior rally already priced in all positive news. With the meeting delivering additional negative impact and technical breakdowns, any short-term rebound is a chance to go short.

For long-term players, set up short positions at any level above 76,000. Manage your positions reasonably; if there’s a rebound, add in sequence around 78,500 at key sell-pressure levels. For intraday short-term traders, watch the resistance test around 76,500. Near 76,500 is enough to place short orders, with targets at 75,500 and 74,500.#WCTC交易王PK