HTX DeepThink: The Federal Reserve's Power Transition and Policy Divergences Are Making Cryptocurrency Market Pricing Frameworks More Complex

BlockBeats News, April 30 — Chloe, author of the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research, pointed out that the Federal Reserve is currently entering a phase of “uncertain policy path combined with a reshaping of the power structure.” The impact on the crypto market has shifted from a single focus on interest rate expectations to a more complex framework of liquidity and risk pricing.

On one hand, the current system, represented by Jerome Powell, clearly signals no rate cuts in the near term. Against the backdrop of rising energy prices, sticky core inflation around 3%, and tariff pass-through, real interest rates may remain high or even tighten further, directly constraining the expansion of beta in the crypto market, especially in leveraged and liquidity-dependent sectors (Perp, DeFi).

The incoming Chair Kevin Warsh advocates for a “more divided, more openly contested” decision-making mechanism, implying that future policy signals will no longer be singular and stable but will instead involve multiple sources of influence. This decentralization of signals will significantly increase market volatility, making the interest rate expectation curve harder to price and raising the discount rate for risk assets.

For the crypto market, macro liquidity in the short term is unlikely to provide clear guidance. Trend-based movements will rely more on structural narratives such as RWA, on-chain yields, and trading infrastructure, rather than solely on expectations of loose monetary policy. Meanwhile, if hawkish consensus within the Fed strengthens and political interference increases, challenging its independence, it could trigger a re-pricing of dollar credit and long-term interest rate systems, which may in turn provide medium- to long-term narratives for assets like BTC and other non-sovereign assets. From a market observation perspective, the current environment offers limited chances for unilateral bets on macro easing, and structural opportunities may be more worth focusing on.