If from the early October high point of BTC last year, the market has been in a bear phase for over half a year, why do retail investors still refuse to accept that we are in a bear market now?

If the highest point was not identified as a bull top, it’s understandable; technical aspects are lacking. But now, with the MA indicators crossing one after another and converging, there’s still significant room at the bottom.
If you’re wrong, you need to change; stand at attention and take the hit to face the problem honestly.

Many players’ “smartness” lies in thinking, “If this year’s bear market is the same as 2022’s, then everyone just stays in cash until the end of the year and enters the market, then everyone will make money.”
But what’s the reality? I’ll say this: without enough understanding, you simply cannot support long-term trading.
Are you watching daily charts, hourly charts, minute charts, but still have a weekly chart awareness?

I see many bloggers, analyzing every morning diligently. Their main content is roughly “Today’s pullback stabilizes at how much, how much rebound has not broken through short positions.”
Just right for retail investors’ taste buds. Is this called technical analysis?
May I ask, at what time does the so-called “stabilization/not breaking through” end on that day? 24:00? Haha.
Lack of brainpower and just “diligence” will only hurt your wealth and health.

Some retail investors say, “Big institutions like BlackRock and MicroStrategy keep buying at high levels. Are they fools?”
They are definitely not fools, and they are more professional than us. But, first, this market is a game of big fish eating small fish; small fish eating shrimp.
Second, the news that reaches retail ears is not necessarily true; it’s just what they see, but they never verify.
Because retail investors play short-term, and the biggest influence on short-term is news, which is the main force’s most skilled and least labor-intensive tool for harvesting profits.
Retail investors, playing short-term, gradually turn into “long-term” traders, but this “long-term” is often induced by news, contrary to the trend, trapped and suffering long-term holding.

Since last week, I’ve been predicting the market will be bearish at the end of the month/May. It’s not a pullback; it’s the end of the rebound, and the next big drop is approaching.
Some ask, “Now FR is negative, indicating more market shorts, so the market will drop sharply to favor the bears?”
I reply: Your thinking is too simple. A big drop isn’t a direct fall from a high; it’s a process of pullback and rebound.
You’ll find that every rebound causes FR to turn negative; every pullback causes FR to turn positive.
This shows that most market participants are contrarian short-term traders. They don’t have the potential to make big money.
You’re overestimating them.
Simply put, an unexpected, sudden large retracement will cause retail investors to jump in without thinking, buy on dips, and average down, using their “lower average cost” mindset, until they’re fully loaded.
Then they can only watch helplessly as the market continues to fall, hoping for a bottom and a rebound to recover their costs.
Little do they know, the initial drop occurs in a dense trading zone before each big decline. Once a big drop forms, in a bear market, it’s impossible to rebound to the dense trading zone. That’s the main force’s goal.
Only during the bull market’s main upward wave can they be freed from this trap.

A qualified investor starts by looking at weekly charts or higher; daily charts and below are death symbols or wealth-destroying signs.
Because technical analysis is only effective on daily charts or higher with regular patterns; in the hour or minute charts affected by news, there are no reliable patterns—only timing can sometimes be accurate or not.