Recently, looking at options markets feels like watching two types of people engage in a war of attrition: buyers focus on the correct direction but still have to race against time, with theta gradually wearing down patience; sellers earn a little "time premium" each day, but essentially they are using tail risk as fuel, and when a needle hits, they have to give back several weeks of "stability."

These days, there's also talk about regional tax hikes and compliance tightening and loosening, causing expectations for deposits and withdrawals to shift, and implied volatility follows the mood, making buyers more likely to be taken out by "not getting that moment," while sellers are more likely to be caught off guard by "that sudden moment."
What I’ve learned isn’t a technique, but that: the time value is actually a soft spot in human nature, waiting to be exploited.